SMM679 Applied Data Analysis 2022
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SMM679
Applied Data Analysis
2022
Question 1
(a) Of what use are the statistical metrics of variance, correlation and
coefficient of variation to a real estate investor investing in offices, shopping centres, distribution warehouses and residential property? What are desirable values for these metrics?
(30 marks)
(b) The arithmetic mean and standard deviation calculated from a sample of
22 dwellings are £315,000 and £15,000 respectively. Construct a 95% confidence interval to obtain an estimate of the typical price of a dwelling. What is the meaning of the confidence interval in the context of this question? (15 Marks)
(c) The following information is given for real rent growth in UK shopping centres (MSCI data) over the period 2001-2020:
Mean (%) Variance Jarque-Bera test |
0.2 36 2.15 |
Following negative real rent growth in 2020, a real estate analyst is interested in calculating the probability of real rent growth to be between:
(i) -5 (minus five per cent) and 0 (zero per cent).
(ii) 0 (zero per cent) and 5 (five per cent).
Calculate these probabilities. Why do you think the Jarque-Bera test
value is required by the analyst? (25 Marks)
(d) The table below is a sample of total returns in the hotel sector in the UK (MSCI data) and the inflation rate (CPI inflation).
Hotel total returns (%) |
CPI inflation (%) |
|
2016 |
7.7 |
0.7 |
2017 |
12.0 |
2.7 |
2018 |
8.2 |
2.4 |
2019 |
5.4 |
1.8 |
2020 |
-2.2 |
0.8 |
What is the annualized real total return in this sector in the given five-year
period? (10 Marks)
(e) Office vacancy in the City of London has more than doubled since the end
of 2019 and is expected to be over 14% at the beginning of 2022. Landlords worry about vacancy rates rising further in the course of 2022.
(i) Consider the statistics in the table below based on sample data for the period 2001 to 2021 (MSCI data). Do you think that office vacancy can rise to 16%? Conduct your analysis at the 5% significance level. (15 Marks)
Office vacancy (%)
Arithmetic mean (%)
Variance
10
14.44
Sample size 21 years (annual data)
(ii) What does the inference you make depend upon? (5 Marks)
(Total: 100 Marks)
Question 2
(a) A real estate analyst has the task of estimating the typical rent achieved in
lettings of green buildings rated four and five star in the CoStar database. The CoStar database contains a large number of such transactions across all sub-markets of Central London and for buildings of different size. The analyst will analyse samples of transactions from the CoStar database (consider it to be the population).
What is the meaning of the sampling error and sampling distribution in the context of this investigation and how could biased estimates of the typical
rent achieved occur at population level? (20 Marks)
(b) Consider the following statistics obtained from total return data for three
main asset classes over the last 20 years. The asset classes are all real estate (real estate, returns are not de-smoothed), 10-year government bonds (bonds) and all stocks (equities) and represented by total returns expressed in percentage growth.
Real estate |
Bonds |
Equities |
|
Mean (%) Variance Skewness |
6.7 33.6 -1.1 |
2.8 16 0.05 |
8.2 156 -0.8 |
(i) Using appropriate calculations and data discuss the comparative performance of the three asset classes and rank their performance in the last 20 years. (10 Marks)
(ii) Should the investor be cautious in explaining relative performance in
the three asset classes based on the reported statistics and
information and why?
(c) The table below shows statistics for MSCI total returns for industrials and residential property in the UK calculated for the period 1995 to 2020 (26 annual observations).
Industrials |
Residential |
|
Arithmetic mean (%) Sum of squared deviations from mean |
10.4 1917.2 |
12.6 1593.3 |
(i) Create confidence intervals for the expected return in the two asset classes. Adopt a confidence level of 95%. (10 Marks)
(ii) Provide an interpretation of the findings. Could the population total
return be 7% or 14.5% in either asset class? (10 Marks)
(d) The variance and covariance matrix of the annual percentage nominal total returns of the assets held for 35 years are reported in the table below.
Treat the information as derived from a sample.
Commercial Property |
Equities |
Bonds |
Property 81.000 |
-80.420 |
-45.500 |
Equities |
144.000 |
110.850 |
Bonds |
|
64.000 |
The arithmetic means of commercial, property bond and equity percentage nominal returns are respectively 7%, 5% and 9%.
(i) Find the correlation (correlation coefficient) between property and equity nominal returns, and the correlation (correlation coefficient) between commercial property and bond nominal returns.
Correct your final answers to two decimal places. (20 marks)
(ii) Based on the results obtained above, which financial asset would you
select to form a simple (two asset) portfolio with property.
Explain your reasoning in full sentences. (10 marks)
(iii) Comparing commercial property and equities which asset is expected
to have the better investment performance? (15 marks)
(Total: 100 Marks)
SECTION B – COMPULSORY QUESTION
Question 3
(a) Consider the following population regression function:
ln (RR) = constant + β 1 ln (Y) + β2 (FLR) + u
where:
RR = office real rents, measured as an index (base year 2018)
Y = real service sector output, measured as an index (base year 2018)
FLR = stock of office floor-space, measured in millions (000,000s)
square feet
u = the error term
ln denotes the natural logarithm of a variable.
(i) What are the expected signs of the coefficients β 1 and β2?
Provide an economic interpretation of the expected direction of their effects.
Answer using full sentences. (10 marks)
(ii) What is the purpose of including a disturbance error term?
(10 marks)
(iii) The OLS estimator is BLUE. What does the “B” stand for in BLUE?
(5 marks)
(b) Consider the following regression results of an office real rent model. The
numbers in parentheses are the associated p-values.
ln (RRt) = -3.75 + 1.8 ln (Yt) - 0.001 (FLRt)
(0.002) (0.008) (0.035)
R2 = 0.74
2 = 0.68
F statistic = 55.22 P-value (0.032)
where:
the subscript t represents the time period.
(i) Interpret the estimates of each of the coefficients. Are they plausible?
(25 marks)
(ii) Using the relevant information reported above, assess the overall
performance of the model. (15 marks)
The results of two of the regression diagnostic tests are reported below. Again, the corresponding p-values are in the parenthesis.
Diagnostic Tests
A: Heteroskedasticity
B: RESET Test
F statistic = 0.962 [0.623]
F statistic = 0.765 [0.542]
(iii) Interpret each diagnostic test result. What are the implications of the
results of these two diagnostic tests for assessing the regression
model? (20 marks)
(iv) In 2019, commentators expect the real index of service sector output
to have remained unchanged and the total stock of office floor-space to be 10 million square feet. The annual inflation rate is expected to be 5%.
In 2018, the real office rent per square foot was £80.
Using the results from the sample regression function, find the
predicted level of real office rents in £ per square foot. Correct your answer to one decimal place.
Provide an interpretation of your result.
(15 marks)
(Total: 100 Marks)
2022-08-24