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Assignment #2

Course: Real Estate and Infrastructure Capstone

We chose Chicago City for ABR capital as a market that they should invest in the extend stay market. Investing in Chicago’s long-term accommodation market is in line with ABR capital’s strategy to leverage high-demand urban centers with a diverse and stable economic base. Chicago is a major economic center with a diversified economy, including finance, technology, manufacturing, and health care. It attracts a steady flow of business travelers who need long-term stays. The city has numerous cultural institutions, universities and medical centers that attract visitors for long-term educational, medical and cultural experiences. Chicago’s extensive transportation  network, including International Airport and major highways, makes it a convenient location for long-term travelers.

Moreover, there is a growing demand for flexible accommodation options in Chicago, especially from professionals, consultants and relocating employees who need long-term accommodation. In addition, Chicago's extended stay market continues to grow, providing ABR Capital with a significant opportunity to capture market share and achieve high occupancy.

The reason we chose Chicago as our investment is that the occupancy rate is at a high level of 72%, which shows the high demand for accommodation.  In terms of ADRs, moderate ADRs allow Chicago to maintain occupancy while offering attractive prices. Revenue per available unit (RevPAR) in Chicago is $50.70. This figure reflects the actual earning power after taking into account occupancy and room rates.

Through the data, we can see the changes in room revenue between 2007 and 2023. The overall trend from 2007 to 2019 was on the rise, but it dropped to $203.12 in 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic. Room revenue declined further in 2021 and 2022, but recovered slightly to $51.78 in 2023.

The demand for rooms from January 2022 to November 2023 shows volatility. The highest was 200,000 and the lowest was  120,000.  Despite the volatility, overall room demand  remained  between 150,000  and  200,000. In the   most  pessimistic scenario, room demand could fall to around 50,000; In the most optimistic scenario, room demand could rise to around 250,000. Through the forecast, we can know that the future trend is in a stable mode, and the future market is relatively stable. The Chicago hotel market will remain stable for some time to come, although there are some uncertainties, but the stability and potential of the overall market demand is great.

StudioRes - Marriott International

Marriott is one of the most recognized hotel brands in the world with a strong brand reputation and customer loyalty. Marriott Hotels are a trusted and choice brand for investors and consumers alike. Chicago is a major economic center with a diverse economy that includes finance, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. The city  has a high concentration of corporate headquarters due to business travel, which drives the demand for extended-stay hotels. Chicago attracts millions of tourists every year, and it is a major destination for conferences and business meetings. The real estate market in Chicago offers opportunities to develop and convert properties into extended-stay hotels at competitive costs compared to other major cities. Concerning the current Marriott hotels in Chicago, they are located in areas of high business activity, and tourist attractions and close to major transportation hubs.

Chicago, IL

The relationship between visitor traffic and the long-stay hotel market in Chicago is strong and mutually reinforcing. Chicago's high visitor numbers, which reached 57.7 million in 2019 and are showing signs of rebounding in the wake of the epidemic, are creating strong demand for both short- and long-term stays. This demand is driven by  several factors,including Chicago's status as a business hub, which attracts long-term project teams and frequent business travelers, and the impact of McCormick Place, which hosts large events requiring extended stays. In addition, the proximity of universities and healthcare facilities generates ongoing demand from students, healthcare professionals, patients, and their families. Quantitative analysis allows us to observe the relationship between the number of tourists and the demand for hotels, which leads to an increase in occupancy, especially during peak tourist seasons or major conferences. Overall, these trends indicate a positive outlook for Chicago's long-term lodging hotel market, thanks to a steady and diverse inflow of visitors from a variety of industries.

Hilton - LivSmart

LivSmart is Hilton's brand designed for long-term stays, combining the comforts of home with the amenities of a hotel. The brandis committed to providing guests with an environment where they can stay for a long time, especially for business travelers, families and others who need to stay in one place for an extended period of time.

Chicago will serve as Hilton's target market to meet the needs of long-term guests with comfortable, convenient and affordable accommodation options. According to CoStar,  below is Chicago’s recent data for midscale hospitality.

City

State

Rooms Under Construction

Occupancy

ADR

RevPAR

Sale Price per Room

Cap Rate

Chicago

Illinois

1495

64.6%

$150.7

$97.41

$6,549,412

11%

Chicago, IL

Chicago, the largest city in the US state of Illinois, has seen steady population growth in recent years, growing by about 2% in the last five years. As the third largest city in the United States, Chicago is an important business and economic center.

According to CoStar's report, Chicago's hotel market is benefiting from the continued return of convention and leisure travelers. Despite the decline in business and international travel, occupancy and revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) are both on the rise, driven by large-scale events and group travel. What’s more, a strong convention schedule and growing temporary demand for weekdays, especially in even-numbered years, such as hosting the Democratic National Convention in 2024, are expected the RevPAR growth rate will reach approximately 7%, which will further enhance the performance of the hotel.

A higher median household income means that local residents have greater purchasing power and higher consumption levels. This is a positive sign for the long-term accommodation market, as it shows that potential customers are more able to afford the high-quality accommodation services offered by the LivSmart brand.

Extended Stay America Premier Suites

Extended Stay America is a hotel chain that specializes in lodging for long-term residents. Founded in 1997, the company operates more than 650 hotels across the United States. Its hotels are specifically tailored for guests who need to stay for weeks   or even months on end, making them popular with business travelers, job transfers and families on long-term vacations.

Chicago, IL

As one of the largest cities in the US, Chicago offers a strong environment for long-term stays due to its diversified economy, strong tourism industry and strategic location as a  transportation hub.

Chicago’s GDP 2001 from 2022.

In 2022, Chicago's GDP exceeded $705 billion, ranking among the largest in the U.S. economy. The city's economy is diverse, with advantages in areas such as finance, manufacturing, technology, healthcare and transportation. This diversity reduces dependence on any single industry, thereby reducing economic risk.

Despite its population decline, Chicago remains the third largest city in the United States. The city has an estimated population of 2.7 million.

Key locations

1.  Hotels located in Downtown Chicago cater to business travelers and tourists who like to stay near corporate offices, attractions such as Millennium Park, and the  city’s nightlife.

2.  Hotels in the suburbs of Schaumburg, Naperville, and Oak Brook attract guests who work or visit family and friends in the suburbs. These areas are also home to many corporate offices and headquarters.

3.  Hotels near O’Here International Airport and Midway International Airport are ideal for travelers needing a quick flight, both for short-and-long-term stays.