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RSM341H1S

Model-Based Decision Making

Winter, 2023

Course Scope, Mission and Learning Outcomes

We are continually barraged with information that may be unreliable, even from the so-called experts. How can anyone make sound decisions in the face of these challenges? This course explores fundamental paradigms of modeling the world for the purpose of making decisions in such circumstances. For example, logically disciplined approaches to decision mak- ing under uncertainty are given major coverage. The broader goal is to become a user, not an abuser, of models by develop- ing facility with key mathematical frameworks as well as the philosophical understanding that undergird them.

Course Prerequisites

Completion of 9.0 credits, ECO204Y1 / ECO206Y1, ECO220Y1 / ECO227Y1 / (STA220H1, STA255H1) / (STA237H1,STA238H1) / (STA257H1, STA261H1)

Course Materials

Required Readings

•  Jeffrey, Richard C.. The Logic of Decision. United Kingdom: University of Chicago Press, 1990.

Evaluation and Grades

Grades are a measure of the knowledge and skills developed by a student within individual courses. Each student will receive a grade on the basis of how well they have command of the course materials, skills and learning objectives of the course.

Work

Percentage of Grade

Due Date

In-class Quiz

22%

2024-02-02

In-class Quiz

22%

2024-03-01

In-class Quiz

22%

2024-03-22

Group Project

34%

2024-04-08

Course Format and Expectations

Writing Assignments or Presentations

The Group Project is intended to help you develop your communication skills. How well you communicate your ideas, in writing or orally, will be considered in the evaluation of the assignment. In your written assignments, you should aim for clarity, strong organization, concision, professionalism, and correct grammar. Your presentations should reflect strong planning and organization, clarity of speech, and an engaging demeanour. Sources, whether in written or presentation as- signments, should always be correctly attributed. Support is available through the RC Centre for Professional Skills (CPS) for students who would like help or feedback on their writing or speaking (presentations). CPS offers both individual and group appointments with trained writing instructors and presentation coaches who are familiar with the RC program and com- mon types of business assignments. You can also access your college Writing Centres for help with written assignments. You can book an appointment with a writing or presentation coach through the RC Centre for Professional Skills Writing Cen- tre. For more information about writing centres, student supports, and study resources, see the Writing and Presentation Coaching academic support page.

Team or Group Assignments

The Group Project requires students to work in teams of3. Learning to work together in teams is a crucial transferrable skill you will use not only in your coursework, but also in your future careers. Support is available if you encounter common teamwork challenges such as:

•  Team members feeling left out of the team.

•  Team members not responding in a timely manner to communication.

•  Division or quality of work among team members being unequal or unfair.

Consult the Centre for Professional Skills Teamwork Resources page for tips, strategies, and best practices. You can also book an appointment with a teamwork mentor through the RC Centre for Professional Skills Writing Centre.  Teamwork mentors can help you resolve or mitigate conflict, strategize on planning, or improve team communication.

If you are a student registered with Accessibility Services, and extensions are one of your academic accommodations, con- sult with your Accessibility Advisor about the teamwork in this course.

Missed Tests and Assignments

Students who miss a test or assignment for reasons entirely beyond their control (e.g. illness) may request special consid- eration within 2 business days of the missed midterm/test/assignment due date.

In such cases, students must:

1.  Complete the Request for Special Consideration form: https://uoft.me/RSMConsideration

2.  Provide documentation to support the request, eg. Absence Declaration from ACORN, medical note etc.

Please note: As of September 2023, students may use the Absence Declaration on ACORN *one time per term* to report an absence and request consideration. Any subsequent absence will require a Verification of Illnessform or other similar relevant documentation.

Students who do not submit their requests and documentation within 2 days may receive a grade of 0 (zero) on the missed course deliverable.

If the midterm exam is missed for valid reasons described above, then the student will need to take a make-up exam. If as- signments are missed for valid reasons described above, then an extension will be granted.

Late Assignments

All assignments are due on the date and at the time specified in Quercus. Late submissions will not be accepted unless documentation is a provided as per the previous section.

Students who, for reasons beyond their control, are unable to submit an assignment by its deadline must obtain approval from the instructor for an extension. Supporting documentation will be required as per the policy on missed tests and assignments.

Statement on Equity, Diversity and Inclusion

The University of Toronto is committed to equity, human rights and respect for diversity. All members of the learning envi- ronment in this course should strive to create an atmosphere of mutual respect where all members of our community can express themselves, engage with each other, and respect one another’s differences. U of T does not condone discrimination or harassment against any persons or communities.

Commitment to Accessibility

The University is committed to inclusivity and accessibility, and strives to provide support for, and facilitate the accommo- dation of, individuals with disabilities so that all may share the same level of access to opportunities and activities offered at the University.

If you require accommodations for a temporary or ongoing disability or health concern, or have any accessibility concerns about the course, the classroom or course materials, please email Accessibility Services or visit the Accessibility Services websitefor more information as soon as possible. Obtaining your accommodation letter may take up to several weeks, so get in touch with them as soon as possible. If you have general questions or concerns about the accessibility of this course, you are encouraged to reach out to your instructor, course coordinator, or Accessibility Services.

Generative AI / ChatGPT

No aids of any kind (including generative AI) are permitted on quizzes and exams. For the Group Project, you may use generative AI. However, you must document and submit a record of how generative AI was used. as long as you document and submit a record of how you used it. You will be held fully responsible for any error and misconduct generated by AI. For example, it is not uncommon for AI to generate plagiarized content because of the way it functions; if you include such plagiarized content in your project, you will be responsible.

Academic Integrity

Academic Integrity is a fundamental value essential to the pursuit of learning and scholarship at the University of Toronto. Participating honestly, respectfully, responsibly, and fairly in this academic community ensures that the U of T degree that you earn will continue to be valued and respected as a true signifier of a student’s individual work and academic achieve- ment. As a result, the University treats cases of academic misconduct very seriously.

The University of Toronto’s Code of Behaviour on Academic Mattersoutlines the behaviours that constitute academic mis- conduct, the process for addressing academic offences and the penalties that may be imposed. You are expected to be familiar with the contents of this document. Potential offences include, but are not limited to:

In papers and assignments

•  Using someone else’s ideas or words without appropriate acknowledgement.

•  Submitting your own work in more than one course without the permission of the instructor.

•  Making up sources or facts.

•  Obtaining or providing unauthorized assistance on any assignment (this includes collaborating with others on as- signments that are supposed to be completed individually).

On test and exams

•  Using or possessing any unauthorized aid, including a cellphone.

•  Looking at someone else’s answers.

•  Misrepresenting your identity.

•  Submitting an altered test for re-grading.

Misrepresentation

•  Falsifying institutional documents or grades.

•  Falsifying or altering any documentation required by the University, including (but not limited to) medical notes.

All suspected cases of academic dishonesty will be investigated by the procedures outlined in the Code of Behaviour on Academic Matters. If you have any questions about what is or is not permitted in the course, please do not hesitate to contact the course instructor. If you have any questions about appropriate research and citation methods, you are expected to seek out additional information from the instructor or other U of T or RC resources such as the RC Centre for Professional Skills, the College Writing Centres or the Academic Success Centre.

Email

At times, the course instructor may decide to communicate important course information by email. As such, all U of T students are required to have a valid UTmail+ email address. You are responsible for ensuring that your UTmail+ email address is setup and properly entered on ACORN. For more information visit the Information Commons Help Desk.

Forwarding your utoronto.ca emailto a Gmail or other type of email account is not advisable. In some cases, messages from utoronto.ca addresses sent to Gmail accounts are filtered as junk mail, which means that important messages from your course instructor may end up in your spam or junk mail folder.

Recording Lectures

Lectures and course materials prepared by the instructor are considered by the University to be an instructor’s intellectual property covered by the Canadian Copyright Act. Students wishing to record a lecture or other course material in any way are required to ask the instructor’s explicit permission and may not do so unless permission is granted. Students who have been previously granted permission to record lectures as an accommodation for a disability are excepted. This includes tape recording, filming, photographing PowerPoint slides, Quercus materials, etc.

If permission for recording is granted by the instructor (or via Accessibility Services), it is intended for the individualstu- dent’s own study purposes and does not include permission to “publish” them in anyway. It is forbidden for a student to publish an instructor’s notes to a website or sell them in any other form without formal permission.

Weekly Schedule

Session

Date

Topic

Readings

1

2024-01-12

Bayesian deliberation

See Quercus. Chs. 1–3.

2

2024-01-19

Utility scales

See Quercus. Chs. 1–3.

3

2024-01-26

Measurement

See Quercus. Chs. 1–3.

4

2024-02-02

Propositional attitudes

See Quercus. Chs. 4–10.

5

2024-02-09

Preference between propositions

See Quercus. Chs. 4–10.

6

2024-02-16

2024-02-23

Measurement

Reading Week (no class)

See Quercus. Chs. 4–10.

7

2024-03-01

Representation

See Quercus. Chs. 4–10.

8

2024-03-08

Possible worlds and introspection

See Quercus.

9

2024-03-15

Induction

See Quercus. Ch. 12.

10

2024-03-22

2024-03-29

Advanced Topics

Good Friday (no class)

See Quercus

11

2024-04-05

Advanced Topics

See Quercus

Please note that the last day you can drop this course without academic penalty is March 11, 2024.

Other Useful Links

 Become a volunteer note taker

 Accessibility Services Note Taking Support

 Credit / No-Credit in RSM courses

 Rotman Commerce Academic Support

URL links for print

  ACORN:http://www.acorn.utoronto.ca/

•  Email Accessibility Services: [email protected]

  Accessibility Services website:http://studentlife.utoronto.ca/as

  University’s Plagiarism Detection Tool FAQ:https://uoft.me/pdt-faq

•  The University of Toronto’s Code of Behaviour on Academic Matters:http://www.governingcouncil.utoronto . ca/policies/behaveac.htm

  Information Commons Help Desk:http://help.ic.utoronto.ca/category/3/utmail.html

  Become a volunteer note taker:https://studentlife.utoronto.ca/program/volunteer-note-taking/

•  Accessibility Services Note Taking Support:https://studentlife.utoronto.ca/service/note-taking-suppo rt/

•  Credit / No-Credit in RSM courses:https://rotmancommerce.utoronto.ca/current-students/degree-req uirements/credit-no-credit-option/

•  Rotman Commerce Academic Support:https://rotmancommerce.utoronto.ca/current-students/academic -support/

  Book an appointment with a writing or presentation coach:http://uoft.me/writingcentres

•  Writing and Presentation Coaching academic support page:https://rotmancommerce.utoronto.ca/current-s tudents/academic-support/writing-and-presentation-coaching/

•  Centre for Professional Skills Teamwork Resources page:https://rotmancommerce.utoronto.ca/teamwork-res ources

  Book an appointment with a Teamwork Mentor:http://uoft.me/writingcentres