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Probability and Statistics for Economists

ECO2150 A00

Spring/summer Term 2023

Course Information

Class Schedule: Tu 9:30AM – 12:20PM

Th 9:30AM – 12:20PM

Course delivery: Synchronous Zoom Meeting (Link will be provided in Brightspace)

For all courses offered in bimodal or online, it is mandatory to have a computer equipped with a camera.

Instructor Information:

Name: Kazi Ahmed

Email: [email protected]

Office: FSS7023

Office Hours: By appointment

Communication Preferences: Email

TA: Pu Sun, Email: [email protected]

Before emailing a question, please fully read this syllabus and explore the associated resources. The answers to many questions can be found in this document and students may be referred to the syllabus if the answer is already available. Please allow at least two (2) business days for responses to inquiries before pursuing another route of communication.

Official Course Description

Role of statistics in economic analysis. Descriptive statistics. Probability and random variables. Distributions and moments of discrete and continuous random variables. Joint distributions. Sampling distributions. Point and interval estimation. Hypothesis testing.

Indigenous Affirmation

ANISHINÀBE

Ni manàdjiyànànig Màmìwininì Anishinàbeg, ogog kà nàgadawàbandadjig iyo akì eko weshkad. Ako nongom ega wìkàd kì mìgiwewàdj.

Ni manàdjiyànànig kakina Anishinàbeg ondaje kaye ogog kakina eniyagizidjig enigokamigàg Kanadàng eji ondàpinangig endàwàdjin Odàwàng.

Ninisidawinawànànig kenawendamòdjig kije kikenindamàwin; weshkinìgidjig kaye kejeyàdizidjig.

Nigijeweninmànànig ogog kà nìgànì sòngideyedjig; weshkad, nongom; kaye àyànikàdj.

Listen to the audio file

ENGLISH

We pay respect to the Algonquin people, who are the traditional guardians of this land. We acknowledge their longstanding relationship with this territory, which remains unceded.

We pay respect to all Indigenous people in this region, from all nations across Canada, who call Ottawa home.

We acknowledge the traditional knowledge keepers, both young and old.

And we honour their courageous leaders: past, present, and future.

Inclusion

The University of Ottawa aims to be an equitable and inclusive institution, actively participating in ensuring the wellbeing of students, personnel and faculty members. The University is committed to eliminating obstacles to student inclusion in accordance with the Ontario Human Rights Code. The Code provides that every person has the right to equal treatment with respect to goods, services, facilities, housing, contracts and employment as well as membership in trade or professional associations and unions without discrimination because of ‘’Race, Ancestry, Place of origin, Colour, Ethnic origin, Citizenship, Creed, Sex, Sexual orientation, Gender identity, Gender expression, Age, Record of offence (in employment only), Receipt of public assistance, Marital status, Family status, Disability’’.

The Human Rights Office of the University of Ottawa adds ‘’although the Human Rights Code does not provide a definition of discrimination, the notion of discrimination covers unfair treatment on the basis of race, disability, sex, or any other personal characteristic. It can take many different forms, can target a single person or a group and can be part of a system.’’

If you have experienced discrimination or harassment, you can seek confidential assistance through the University Human Rights Office to discuss your situation and/or to file a formal complaint.

The following uOttawa Campus based services are available to you and your fellow students:

· uOttawa Counselling Service including Individual Counselling provided by uOttawa Counsellor, Pierre Bercy who specializes in anti-black racism;

· University of Ottawa Students’ Union (UOSU) Resources for/from the Black Community, Centre for Students with Disabilities, Racialized and Indigenous Students Experience Centre, Womxns Resource Centre and uOttawa Pride Center

· Anti-racism student committee (Email: [email protected])

· Mashkawazìwogamig: Indigenous Resource Center

· University of Ottawa’s Human Rights Office including policies on accessibility.

Course Learning Outcomes

General Course Learning Outcomes

This course aims to familiarize students with basic notions of statistics and probabilities. Emphasis will be placed on tools commonly used in empirical research and economic analysis. This course is a prerequisite for "ECO2151 Introduction to Econometrics."

Specific Course Learning Outcomes

At the end of the course, students should be able to summarize a database using descriptive statistics and informative graph representations. In addition, they should be familiar with the concepts of statistical population, sample, random variable, theoretical distribution, empirical distribution, sampling distribution, theoretical moment, empirical moment, estimator, linear regression, confidence interval, and hypothesis test.

Teaching Methods

Discussions on each topic will be followed by exercises in STATA.

Guidelines on recording Class Sessions

Classes will be recorded. Access to recordings will be available through Brightspace and will be removed after 150 days. Recordings are the intellectual property of the professor and are protected by copyright. Students authorized to receive recordings are not permitted to share or download them, and they will lose the right to their accommodation if they do.

Notice - Collection of Personal Information with Class Recordings: In accordance with the Ontario Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act and with University Policy 90, your personal information is collected under the authority of the University of Ottawa Act, 1965. Classes will only be recorded for purposes consistent with the fulfillment of the course learning activities and outcomes. The recording may include the use of your video presence, picture, and voice, depending upon the technology used. You may ask you instructor to inform you of the specifics of the technology. If you choose not to have your video presence, picture or voice recorded, you may disable the audio and video functionality or request accommodation from your instructor. The recording will be available only to authorize individuals through University of Ottawa systems. If you have questions about the collection, use and disclosure of your personal information in this notice, please contact your instructor.

Required Materials

Anderson, David R., Dennis J. Sweeney, Thomas A. Williams, Jeffrey D. Camm, and James J. Cochran (2018): Statistics for Business and Economics, 14th edition

The textbook is available at the University’s bookstore. An e-book version of the textbook is also available on https://www.nelsonbrain.com/shop

Statistical software Stata is mandatory. You can download the software from the following website: https://fssapps.uottawa.ca/forms/StataSoftware/Download

Assessment Strategy

Assessment Type	Weight	Expected Date
3 Assignments	5% each (15% total)	June 29, July 13 and July 27
5 Quizzes	3% each (15% total)	June 27, July 6, July 11, July 20 and July 25
Midterm 1 (Chapters 1-3)	15%	July 4
Midterm 2 (Chapters 4-6)	20%	July 18
Final (Chapters 1-8)	35%	Aug 1

Quizzes, Midterms and Final will be administered using the Quiz tool in Brightspace and take place during the class time. Duration of each quiz is 15 minutes, duration of Midterm 1 is 1 hour, duration of Midterm 2 is 1 hour 30 minutes and duration of Final is 2 hours 30 minutes.

Assignments will be administered using the Assignment tool in Brightspace. Use of STATA is required to complete the assignments. Assignments will be posted 1 week before the due date.

University of Ottawa Grading Scheme

https://international.uottawa.ca/en/grading-system

Letter grade	Numerical value	Percentage value
A+	10	90-100
A	9	85-89
A-	8	80-84
B+	7	75-79
B	6	70-74
C+	5	65-69
C	4	60-64
D+	3	55-59
D	2	50-54
E	1	40-49
F	0	0-39
ABS	0	Absent
EIN	0	Failure/Incomplete

Policy on the EIN grade (incomplete):

Policy on the EIN grade (incomplete):

In all economics courses, students who fail to complete work (either a single piece of work or a combination of work) worth a total of 25% or more of the final grade will receive a grade of EIN in the course. The EIN grade is equivalent to a failure mark (F). See Regulation 10.6 (https://www.uottawa.ca/administration-and-governance/academic-regulation-10-grading-system) for details. Please note that a denied request for a deferral may therefore lead to failing the course.

Assessment Policies and Expectations

Attendance

Please indicate if a certain percentage of attendance days are required.

Time Commitment

In order to succeed in a 3-credit course, alongside the standard 6 hours of in-class instruction, students should expect to spend a minimum of 6 hours per week outside of the classroom engaged in activities related to the course, e.g. homework, reading, studying, etc., and should expect a minimum time commitment of 9 hours per week per course (on average).

Language Expectations

This course is delivered in English, and in class interactions, including the online discussion boards, and feedback will also be managed in English. As part of your evaluation will be on your writing abilities, it is recommended to take the appropriate measures to avoid mistakes such as spelling, syntax, punctuation, inappropriate use of terms, etc. You may be penalized up to 15% for poorly written materials, to the professor’s discretion.

Online Examination Strategy

Mobile Devices

Unless explicitly requested, please refrain from using mobile devices during class. As in class time is quite limited, I would ask that you prioritize using this time to engage with class discussions and other content-related activities. Active participation and engagement with the content and your peers helps ensure full participation marks for your contributions this semester.

Late Assignments

All assignments are to be submitted by their due date and time.

All late submissions will be immediately docked 5%, with an additional 5% for each subsequent day late to a maximum of 3 days, including weekends. After 3 days all outstanding assignments will be given a zero (0%) grade.

Exceptions are made only for illness or other serious situations deemed as such by the instructor. University regulations require all absences from exams and all late submissions due to illness to be supported by a medical certificate. Absence for any other serious reason must be justified in writing, to the professor, within five business days following the date of the exam or submission of an assignment.

The Faculty reserves the right to accept or refuse the reason; reasons such as travel, jobs, or any misreading of the examination timetable are not acceptable.

Missed exams and requests for deferral

An absence from an evaluation without a valid reason will result in a mark of 0. As of September 2022, according to Academic Regulation I-9.5, students can request to be excused from only one evaluation per course. Students who wish to be excused for an absence must complete a deferral form and submit credible external documentation within five working days of the evaluation. The Faculty reserves the right to accept or refuse the reason. Students whose request is approved will be required to write a deferred evaluation.

The date of the deferred final exam for Session C is August 11, 2023.

Exam conflicts

· Any conflict with a midterm exam schedule should be reported to the Professor at the beginning of the term. This request is especially applicable to the type 3 conflict (two in-class exams back-to-back) for students with special learning needs.

· Any conflict with a final exam schedule should be reported to the Faculty’s undergraduate office as soon as the final examination schedule is released.

Regulation on Academic Fraud

Preamble

Academic integrity is a fundamental value at the core of all academic activities. The regulation on academic fraud defines the acts that can compromise academic integrity and outlines the various sanctions and consequences of such acts, and the procedures for handling allegations and setting sanctions. Further information on academic integrity is available on the website of the Provost and Vice-President, Academic Affairs.

Definition

1. Any act by a student that may result in a distorted academic evaluation for that student or another student. Academic fraud includes but is not limited to activities such as:

1. plagiarizing or cheating in any way;

2. submitting work not partially or fully the student’s own, excluding properly cited quotations and references. Such work includes assignments, essays, tests, exams, research reports and theses, regardless of whether the work is in written, oral or any other form;

3. presenting research data that are forged, falsified or fabricated in any manner.

4. attributing a statement of fact or reference to a fabricated source;

5. submitting the same work or a significant part of the same piece of work in more than one course, or a thesis or any other piece of work submitted elsewhere without the prior approval of the appropriate professors or academic units;

6. falsifying or misrepresenting an academic evaluation, using a forged or altered supporting document or facilitating the use of such a document;

7. taking any action aimed at falsifying an academic evaluation.

Sanctions

1. Students who commit or attempt to commit academic fraud, or who are a party to academic fraud, are subject to one or more sanctions (full list), such as:

1. a written warning;

2. zero for part of the work in question;

3. zero for the work in question;

4. zero for the work in question and the loss of additional marks for the course in question;

5. zero for the work in question, with a final grade no higher than the passing grade for the course in question;

6. an F or NS grade for the course in question.

Notice of Collection of Personal Information - Respondus

In accordance with the Ontario Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act (“FIPPA”) and with the University of Ottawa (the “University”) Policy 90, your personal information is collected under the authority of the University of Ottawa Act, 1965.

Your personal information collected for remote proctoring will be used by the University for the purposes of and those consistent with the fulfillment of the course learning activities, administering online exams and maintaining the academic integrity of the exam process. After each evaluation, the personal information collected during the remote proctoring session will be reviewed by your instructor (or their designate) for the purposes stated above. The personal information collected may be used where academic fraud is alleged as described in Academic regulation I-14 - Academic fraud.

The remote proctoring is supported by Respondus, an online proctoring tool integrated with and accessed through Brightspace. LockDown Browser is a customized browser that locks the testing environment and Respondus Monitor is a companion service for LockDown Browser that uses webcam technology to maintain the integrity of online evaluations. Consult the Respondus Privacy Policy and Terms of Use - LockDown Browser or Terms of Use - Respondus Monitor for information on how Respondus collects, uses and discloses information and its security measures for safeguarding the information maintained by it. The personal information may be stored outside Canada and subject to the laws of the jurisdiction where it is stored. The information collected in accordance with this notice will be retained for one year from the end of the semester.

If you have questions about the collection, use and disclosure of your personal information in this notice, please contact Hope MacLean. Questions of a general nature regarding the collection, use and disclosure of information should be addressed to the Chief Privacy Officer by email at [email protected].

Course Calendar

Date	Topic	Assessment
June 20, Tu	Course Overview, Data and Statistics
June 22, Th	Descriptive Statistics: Tabular and Graphical Displays
June 27, Tu	Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Measures	Quiz 1
June 29, Th	Introduction to Probability	Assignment 1 Due
July 4, Tu		Midterm 1 (Chapters 1 - 4)
July 6, Th	Discrete Probability Distributions	Quiz 2
July 11, Tu	Continuous Probability Distributions	Quiz 3
July 13, Th	Sampling and Sampling Distributions	Assignment 2 Due
July 18, Tu		Midterm 2 (Chapters 4 - 7)
July 20, Th	Interval Estimation	Quiz 4
July 25, Tu	Hypothesis Tests	Quiz 5
July 27, Th	Review	Assignment 3 Due
Aug 1, Tu		Final (Chapters 1 – 9)